General Forum

Example

Posted By: StevieY
Date: 13 Aug 01, 5:36 pm

In Response To: Example please? (docriver)

Don't worry, this is not a flame. This is what the forum is for, discussion.

I agree with the "risk is too big" reason. I just think we have different opinions on what that is. If you have a team you think should be 20-1 and you get them at a 40-1 shot to win the SB, and they reach the SB, why hedge now? Almost all the risk of the bet is gone. When you made the bet, you were at risk of them not making the playoffs at all, and if they did make the playoffs, that they would win 3 or 4 straight games to win the SB. Once there, the only risk is that one game. Isn't that where you wanted to be? Isn't that why you made the bet? At the time you made the bet, you decided if they got there you would hedge them, then why didn't you bet them to just get there? Ok, your team made the SB, and you feel they have a 40% chance of winning. Your moneyline is +150, but you have +4000, how is your risk bigger than your original bet? Even if you felt your team had a 5% chance of winning, that is still a +EV bet, and less risk than you had at the beginning of the year. If it was that low though(or something close to it), something obviously happened since you made the bet, and may be reason enough to hedge it. Maybe the variance bothers you, but unless something happened drastically to your team prior to the SB, I can't see a one game do or die situation as being more risky than the entire season and playoffs getting there.

Messages In This Thread

How to handle the "huge exposure game" -- Fezzik -- 12 Aug 01, 11:53 pm

So, will you be hedging against the Mariners in October? -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 am

Difference between A's and Eagles -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 11:35 am

that's not a hedge -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 12:10 pm

Yes and no -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 pm

risk -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:04 pm

Hedging -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 1:38 pm

Example please? -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:56 pm

Example -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 5:36 pm

because you have 40x in equity now -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:01 pm

above title should read : 18x, not 40x (nt) -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:08 pm

You aren't wagering 18,000+ -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 6:11 pm

Agree to disagree -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:20 pm

You are both right, even disagreeing -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:32 am

Size your bets according the payoff, not the bet size. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 6:39 pm

he really has found some arbitrage -- Math Boy -- 13 Aug 01, 8:21 pm

You can always overbet if the marginal EV from betting more is less than th -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:41 pm

Practical issues -- James -- 14 Aug 01, 11:27 am

i'm the minority -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:38 pm

hedging futures bets -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 7:51 pm

I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 21 Aug 01, 7:58 pm

hedging futures -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 9:22 pm

I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 22 Aug 01, 6:40 pm

Sea hedge -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:34 am

Oops.......I showed my Sea Bias -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:36 am

I'm in the same boat. I won't hedge. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 8:57 am

Risk-averse betting? -- John May -- 13 Aug 01, 9:14 am

Agree -- Don Schlesinger -- 14 Aug 01, 1:11 pm

1 investment question -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 2:29 am

Attempt at some answers -- Don Schlesinger -- 15 Aug 01, 8:13 am

how much does money mean to you? -- docriver -- 15 Aug 01, 8:39 am

In-the-money options -- Jaeger -- 23 Aug 01, 6:44 pm

No -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 8:55 pm

Risk-averse betting? -- lepto -- 14 Aug 01, 1:33 pm

Your bet suffered turf toe -- McNabb#1 -- 14 Aug 01, 4:24 am

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