General Forum

risk

Posted By: docriver
Date: 13 Aug 01, 1:04 pm

In Response To: Yes and no (StevieY)

"If your risk is too big, you shouldn't have done it in the first place. Playing with scared money is not the way to go. If you bet that much in August, why should it scare you 1 game away? "

I disagree with this statement. Let's say you handicap the Ravens to be 20-1, yet you get them at 40-1. It is very possible that you know ahead of time that if they get to the AFC Championship game and the Super Bowl, that you'll hedge some of risk away. The EV loss you are taking in the AFC Champ and Super Bowl (or only SB) is already included in your capping before the beginning of the year...In essence, it is possible that you may be taking a bet at 35-1 when you think it is 20-1....knowing full well you are getting 40-1 and going to lay it off if they get that far.

"The only reason to hedge a bet is if you feel your original bet has lost its luster. "

But you would still only hedge it if you think betting the other side is either giving you even money or edge to yourself...or if you can't stomach the risk anymore. Here's an example - let's say you bet the Astros against the Cubs today at EVEN money and you think its a great bet. Then you find out that Bagwell, Berkman and Alou are all out with the flu. The line moves to Chc -220 / Astros +200. YOu handicap the line to be fair at Chc -210. Does this mean you should bet chc -220? I don't think so.

Messages In This Thread

How to handle the "huge exposure game" -- Fezzik -- 12 Aug 01, 11:53 pm

So, will you be hedging against the Mariners in October? -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 am

Difference between A's and Eagles -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 11:35 am

that's not a hedge -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 12:10 pm

Yes and no -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 pm

risk -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:04 pm

Hedging -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 1:38 pm

Example please? -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:56 pm

Example -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 5:36 pm

because you have 40x in equity now -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:01 pm

above title should read : 18x, not 40x (nt) -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:08 pm

You aren't wagering 18,000+ -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 6:11 pm

Agree to disagree -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:20 pm

You are both right, even disagreeing -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:32 am

Size your bets according the payoff, not the bet size. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 6:39 pm

he really has found some arbitrage -- Math Boy -- 13 Aug 01, 8:21 pm

You can always overbet if the marginal EV from betting more is less than th -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:41 pm

Practical issues -- James -- 14 Aug 01, 11:27 am

i'm the minority -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:38 pm

hedging futures bets -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 7:51 pm

I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 21 Aug 01, 7:58 pm

hedging futures -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 9:22 pm

I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 22 Aug 01, 6:40 pm

Sea hedge -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:34 am

Oops.......I showed my Sea Bias -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:36 am

I'm in the same boat. I won't hedge. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 8:57 am

Risk-averse betting? -- John May -- 13 Aug 01, 9:14 am

Agree -- Don Schlesinger -- 14 Aug 01, 1:11 pm

1 investment question -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 2:29 am

Attempt at some answers -- Don Schlesinger -- 15 Aug 01, 8:13 am

how much does money mean to you? -- docriver -- 15 Aug 01, 8:39 am

In-the-money options -- Jaeger -- 23 Aug 01, 6:44 pm

No -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 8:55 pm

Risk-averse betting? -- lepto -- 14 Aug 01, 1:33 pm

Your bet suffered turf toe -- McNabb#1 -- 14 Aug 01, 4:24 am

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