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Streaks

Posted By: Revere14
Date: 28 Aug 01, 1:43 am

In Response To: Don't understand your comment at all (Don Schlesinger)

Short term "streaks" of a sports gambler do not indicate anything statistically meaningful. If a person has lost 3 bets in a row, that fact alone is not enough to make any predictions about future performance. If someone is hitting 40% for the year and in the past has hit 50-60%, that does not mean that they will start hitting 65% or more to "make up" for their losses. Perhaps they will decrease the size of their bets, or quit gambling and get a real job, but the picks themselves are independent, and it is as difficult to consistently pick losers as it is to pick winners.

You can say what you want about the psychological impact a series of wins or losses has on an athlete or team, but to apply the same principles to a handicapper in an effort to predict future performance is futile.

Revere14

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Messages In This Thread

Handicappers, Variance and Consistency. -- lepto -- 27 Aug 01, 6:39 am
Consistency -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 7:58 am
Clarifying my question: -- lepto -- 27 Aug 01, 8:16 am
Clarifying Don's response -- Math Boy -- 27 Aug 01, 9:03 am
In the financial markets, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 5:39 pm
Tsk, tsk -- Kim Lee -- 27 Aug 01, 1:54 pm
Don't understand your comment at all -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 5:44 pm
Streaks -- Revere14 -- 28 Aug 01, 1:43 am
Sharpe -- Editor -- 28 Aug 01, 8:51 pm
Don't Bother Kim.... -- Dr Wogga -- 30 Aug 01, 11:13 am
Yup -- Don Schlesinger -- 30 Aug 01, 2:17 pm

 

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