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Clarifying Don's response

Posted By: Math Boy
Date: 27 Aug 01, 9:03 am

In Response To: Clarifying my question: (lepto)

Not that what Don has written is unclear... We will expand a little. Find the variance of the yearly returns as Don has suggested. We will compare that against the variance we would expect if the handicapper were to theoretically have the same chance of hitting each game.

I am going to assume you are talking about basketball or football, where everything is against a spread. Baseball is a little more complicated. The winning percentage is distributed as "binomial/number of games". What this means is that the yearly variance should be:
(overall winning percentage}*(1-{overall winning percentage)}.

Compare this number to the actual variance of the season win rates. That should give you some clue. There are some more statistical tests if you wanted to have a certain confidence that your results were weird.

Math Boy

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Messages In This Thread

Handicappers, Variance and Consistency. -- lepto -- 27 Aug 01, 6:39 am
Consistency -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 7:58 am
Clarifying my question: -- lepto -- 27 Aug 01, 8:16 am
Clarifying Don's response -- Math Boy -- 27 Aug 01, 9:03 am
In the financial markets, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 5:39 pm
Tsk, tsk -- Kim Lee -- 27 Aug 01, 1:54 pm
Don't understand your comment at all -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 5:44 pm
Streaks -- Revere14 -- 28 Aug 01, 1:43 am
Sharpe -- Editor -- 28 Aug 01, 8:51 pm
Don't Bother Kim.... -- Dr Wogga -- 30 Aug 01, 11:13 am
Yup -- Don Schlesinger -- 30 Aug 01, 2:17 pm

 

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