General Forum

Difference between A's and Eagles

Posted By: StevieY
Date: 13 Aug 01, 11:35 am

In Response To: So, will you be hedging against the Mariners in October? (James)

I agree you shouldn't hedge a bet like the Eagles teaser, but the A's/Mariners is a different situation. For the Eagles, you made the bet last week, has anything changed for you to think it won't win? If not, then why change your bet. That usually happens on games like this where you didn't bet it a month or more in advance. Now if you heard that Baltimore was going to play their starters the entire game and Phily was playing their starters one series, yeah, you should probably hedge it. That is not the case. It is pre-season and you know how it will be played. Home dogs of 1.5-2.5 teased up are 14-3 the last 4 years in pre season(2.5 is 6-0 the last 4 years). Looks good to me. On the other hand, you have the Mariners bet. That bet has had 3 months to change. Is Seattle the best team in the AL right now? No, Oakland is. It doesn't matter what happened in April or May. If you jumped on Seattle early on at 30-1 or better to win the Pennant, hedging it with Oakland isn't a bad play for a couple reasons. First, Oakland is playing better than anyone right now. Second, they can't play each other in the 1st round. You have a great chance of locking up both spots in the AL Championship game. I didn't jump on Seattle early on, but I got Oakland at 20-1(called it 3 weeks ago on Green Chip when they were 5 games behind 2 teams). The best of both worlds would have been Seattle 30-1, and Oakland 20-1. You couldn't go wrong there. I think that is the best example of when the hedge should be used, when things have changed since you made the first bet.

Messages In This Thread

How to handle the "huge exposure game" -- Fezzik -- 12 Aug 01, 11:53 pm

So, will you be hedging against the Mariners in October? -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 am

Difference between A's and Eagles -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 11:35 am

that's not a hedge -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 12:10 pm

Yes and no -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 pm

risk -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:04 pm

Hedging -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 1:38 pm

Example please? -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:56 pm

Example -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 5:36 pm

because you have 40x in equity now -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:01 pm

above title should read : 18x, not 40x (nt) -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:08 pm

You aren't wagering 18,000+ -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 6:11 pm

Agree to disagree -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:20 pm

You are both right, even disagreeing -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:32 am

Size your bets according the payoff, not the bet size. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 6:39 pm

he really has found some arbitrage -- Math Boy -- 13 Aug 01, 8:21 pm

You can always overbet if the marginal EV from betting more is less than th -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:41 pm

Practical issues -- James -- 14 Aug 01, 11:27 am

i'm the minority -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:38 pm

hedging futures bets -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 7:51 pm

I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 21 Aug 01, 7:58 pm

hedging futures -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 9:22 pm

I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 22 Aug 01, 6:40 pm

Sea hedge -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:34 am

Oops.......I showed my Sea Bias -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:36 am

I'm in the same boat. I won't hedge. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 8:57 am

Risk-averse betting? -- John May -- 13 Aug 01, 9:14 am

Agree -- Don Schlesinger -- 14 Aug 01, 1:11 pm

1 investment question -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 2:29 am

Attempt at some answers -- Don Schlesinger -- 15 Aug 01, 8:13 am

how much does money mean to you? -- docriver -- 15 Aug 01, 8:39 am

In-the-money options -- Jaeger -- 23 Aug 01, 6:44 pm

No -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 8:55 pm

Risk-averse betting? -- lepto -- 14 Aug 01, 1:33 pm

Your bet suffered turf toe -- McNabb#1 -- 14 Aug 01, 4:24 am

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