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General Forum

Handicappers, Variance and Consistency.

Posted By: lepto
Date: 27 Aug 01, 6:39 am

A very preliminary look to some handicapper records seem to indicate that they tend to be more consistent around their long-term average W/L % than what is to be expected by chance alone. i.e.: A particular capper with say a 55% W/L ratio is more likely to go 55% three years in a row, than to go 60%, 49%, 56%. These observations seem to translate also to the short run, i.e.: it is more likely to see consistent winning months or quarters near the long-term average, than to see long losing streaks followed by outstanding winning streaks.

This, at first look, seems to indicate that these cappers get more agressive/risky after a slight winning streak and get more careful with their picks after a series of losses.

I have no hard evidence to provide, but I would like to know if anyone else has made this observation before or if anyone else has done any study on this subject.

What I'm after is a mathematical way (beyond the use of simple Standard Deviation) to "quantify" the following straightforward betting approach:

I would rather bet "picks" from an approach that "consistently" produces 55% W/L over a month, over 12 months, than bet "picks" from another source that produces 60% W/L over a year, but with long winning/losing streaks.

Is there an statistical way to define this "consistency".

Thanks in advance.

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Messages In This Thread

Handicappers, Variance and Consistency. -- lepto -- 27 Aug 01, 6:39 am
Consistency -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 7:58 am
Clarifying my question: -- lepto -- 27 Aug 01, 8:16 am
Clarifying Don's response -- Math Boy -- 27 Aug 01, 9:03 am
In the financial markets, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 5:39 pm
Tsk, tsk -- Kim Lee -- 27 Aug 01, 1:54 pm
Don't understand your comment at all -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 5:44 pm
Streaks -- Revere14 -- 28 Aug 01, 1:43 am
Sharpe -- Editor -- 28 Aug 01, 8:51 pm
Don't Bother Kim.... -- Dr Wogga -- 30 Aug 01, 11:13 am
Yup -- Don Schlesinger -- 30 Aug 01, 2:17 pm

 

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