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Risk-averse betting?

Posted By: John May
Date: 13 Aug 01, 9:14 am

In Response To: How to handle the "huge exposure game" (Fezzik)

I equate this to insuring a blackjack; it gets the money, but is a poor Expected Value play. I'd much rather roll the dice with the Eagles (the team I like to cover even at +2) than place any bet 11/10 on a team I think will cover less than 50% at that number.

I agree it is a poor expected value play. However, sticking with your insurance analogy, its sometimes adviseable to insure a blackjack to reduce risk even though you have no advantage (the exact formula is rather complicated). This is because it reduces overall risk allowing us to bet more agrressively for the same ROR and make more money overall.
Sometimes a similar sort of thing can happen with sports betting. By hedging and losing small amounts in EV when the variance is extreme you can get away with more aggressive initial wagers. The exact formulas are rather complex of course.

I endorse your main point that seems to be its not a good idea to hedge because the bettor is simply scared of fluctuation. This is not a profession for the weak-willed.

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Messages In This Thread

How to handle the "huge exposure game" -- Fezzik -- 12 Aug 01, 11:53 pm
So, will you be hedging against the Mariners in October? -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 am
Difference between A's and Eagles -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 11:35 am
that's not a hedge -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 12:10 pm
Yes and no -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 pm
risk -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:04 pm
Hedging -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 1:38 pm
Example please? -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:56 pm
Example -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 5:36 pm
because you have 40x in equity now -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:01 pm
above title should read : 18x, not 40x (nt) -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:08 pm
You aren't wagering 18,000+ -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 6:11 pm
Agree to disagree -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:20 pm
You are both right, even disagreeing -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:32 am
Size your bets according the payoff, not the bet size. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 6:39 pm
he really has found some arbitrage -- Math Boy -- 13 Aug 01, 8:21 pm
You can always overbet if the marginal EV from betting more is less than th -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:41 pm
Practical issues -- James -- 14 Aug 01, 11:27 am
i'm the minority -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:38 pm
hedging futures bets -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 7:51 pm
I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 21 Aug 01, 7:58 pm
hedging futures -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 9:22 pm
I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 22 Aug 01, 6:40 pm
Sea hedge -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:34 am
Oops.......I showed my Sea Bias -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:36 am
I'm in the same boat. I won't hedge. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 8:57 am
Risk-averse betting? -- John May -- 13 Aug 01, 9:14 am
Agree -- Don Schlesinger -- 14 Aug 01, 1:11 pm
1 investment question -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 2:29 am
Attempt at some answers -- Don Schlesinger -- 15 Aug 01, 8:13 am
how much does money mean to you? -- docriver -- 15 Aug 01, 8:39 am
In-the-money options -- Jaeger -- 23 Aug 01, 6:44 pm
No -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 8:55 pm
Risk-averse betting? -- lepto -- 14 Aug 01, 1:33 pm
Your bet suffered turf toe -- McNabb#1 -- 14 Aug 01, 4:24 am

 

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