General Forum

More Observations

Posted By: RD
Date: 26 Aug 01, 10:23 am

In Response To: Getting the best line (RD)

In the roughly one month this board has been operational, I have the following additional observations:

1. Whatever you think about Dan Gordon, his service, or his book, he makes a statement on page 97 of his book that indicates to me that he knows what he is doing. He talks about a "settled" line, which for football is the line around noon eastern Monday morning after most offshore stores are open, and the early overnight lines have been bet into. For daily sports, it is the line around noon eastern each day. Gordon says he will never take the worst of the settled line -- that is, if it is 9.5 on team A, he will never lay more than 9.5 when betting the favorite, or take less than 9.5 when betting the dog. Every professional bettor I know follows this rule without deviation. By following this in your own wagering, you will go a long way to becoming a sharp sports bettor, regardless of handicapping ability. In addition, by watching the plays posted by the various touts and others relative to the settled line, you can get an idea of who knows how to beat the game and who have no clue.

2. There is a continuing controversy over bet sizing according to an edge. But if you look closely, the various proponents are really not that far apart. StevieY talks about a comfort level of 1 or 1.5 units. Dan Gordon (in his book and via Don) talks about an average bet of 1 unit, sometimes going down to .5 unit and sometimes up to 1.5 unit. And even Fezzik, who seems to advocate a much wider betting spread, is not really that far away from the other two. If you read his replies to bet sizing carefully, you will see that most of his wagers will come in at around the 3-4 unit spot, a few a 5 units, and some 1-2 units. Basically, his 1-2 unit plays are not going to mean much in this betting scheme to his bottom line, so he is really also betting 1 unit on most, and 1.5 units on games he perceives to have a better edge.

3. Betting more when you can find an additional .5 point, especially around key numbers, is another controversy. For a given game, certainly none of those arguing this point will disagree that finding the best line gives you the best edge. What they seem to miss is that playing a number that subsequently moves against you is a bad bet. When Colin Caster is on his game, the lines into which he plays are tough to find. When some of the guest posters put up plays where the lines move against them, you can pretty much discount the value of these selections. Say what u want about Fezzik, but he seems to know the importance of getting the best number. So what these guys are really arguing about is what to do with a bet made at a bad number. The better the tout, the fewer times he will put out a selection where the line moves against him. StevieY may downplay the syndicate moves against his picks, but by not betting into the best line, he is giving up an edge. Like trading the markets, betting too early and having the line move against you is a bad trade, and waiting for a line and missing your price is a missed trade.

3. Wong's college picks, I hope, were made as a joke, but I don't think so. Just as the bad touts that are made fun of as being dishonest and put plays in line schedules weeks in advance, he has posted plays without even seeing the lines into which he would be betting. In addition, he is taking his positions based on a free (and obviously publicly available) pamphet. He has no idea whether or not any of this information will be incorporated into the line when he makes a play.

4. Wong's insistance on a "neutral" betting line for posting picks indicates that he really doesn't get it in regards to being a sharp sports bettor. MDManiac has shown a proficiency at posting picks last year on green chip, yet he is shot down by Wong when he posts stuff that has moved. Has Wong considered that much of MD's edge comes from finding these weak numbers early? Wong apparently thinks that driving to Las Vegas and betting the NFL on Friday and Saturday gets him the best of it. Fezzik and Dan Gordon know otherwise -- they are looking to get the best of the numbers very early or very late, especially around key numbers. One of the large betting syndicates only makes NFL plays on dogs when they can get the extra 1/2 point around key numbers, and do very little other handicapping. Some guys make a living hanging around the public sports books like Leroys waiting until just before the games go off the gain the extra edge on NFL dogs around the key numbers.

5. StevieY has shown proficiency handicapping over the past year, but he loses some respect when someone gets under his skin and he resorts to making unsubstantiated claims. He needs to let his selections and analysis do the talking. No one really cares whether or not he made six figures last year betting sports, but when he uses this to justify a position on another subject (bet sizing), he loses some stature. Also, no one cares about how well you are doing away from this board -- the actual plays and analysis posted are how readers will evaluate you.

Messages In This Thread

Touts, honesty -- Kim Lee -- 25 Aug 01, 3:36 pm

Getting the best line -- RD -- 25 Aug 01, 8:13 pm

This is the BEST post I have read -- lepto -- 26 Aug 01, 8:06 am

More Observations -- RD -- 26 Aug 01, 10:23 am

re:more observations -- shadow -- 26 Aug 01, 11:10 am

Impressive post -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Aug 01, 11:42 am

Nice post -- StevieY -- 26 Aug 01, 3:39 pm

excellent post -- alterego -- 26 Aug 01, 9:03 pm

getting the best line -- Michael -- 27 Aug 01, 4:53 pm

goldsheet -- Michael -- 27 Aug 01, 4:40 pm

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