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Getting the best line

Posted By: RD
Date: 25 Aug 01, 8:13 pm

In Response To: Touts, honesty (Kim Lee)

There is another problem with touts, even the honest ones. The edge in profitable sports betting is small, and can be enhanced by getting the best line in the betting market between opening and game time. Conversely, the edge can be significantly diminished or even eliminated by taking the worst of the line.

Like foreign exchange trading, the sports betting market is almost a 24 hour timeframe. In fact, many offshort joints are open 24 hours around the clock. Lines move at a moment's notice. The problem for the tout is getting his picks to subscribers to allow them to get the best line. Posting on a web site is dubious, since there is no set time for selections to be posted, and the lines may subsequently move against the pick after posting. In addition, followers of the tout may check the web site hours or days after the selections are posted, and will be unable to get the best of the number.

E-mail suffers less from the above problems, but still requires the tout follower to check the e-mail on a timely basis. The various instant messangers are good, but now the subscriber is chained to the computer waiting for picks.

In sum, with most touts, even the honest ones, there will be a delay of some sort from when the selection is made until the subscriber is able to place the wager. In the interim, especially if the tout has spotted a weak line, there is a significant risk that the attractive spread will also be discovered by others and move away from the good number. This will reduce the actual profitability of the tout user, perhaps turning a profitable season for the tout into a breakeven or loser for the tout follower. Dan Gordon may well do his reputed historical average of 57 percent this year -- but unless his followers are able to get his selections at the same time he is making his plays and find the same or better numbers, most of the subscribers will fare worse -- in fact, some will probably lose. I cannot overemphasize how price sensitive this business is, how important 1/2 points are around key numbers, and how thin the edge of winners, even honest touts, really is. Like everything else in this world, you reap what you sow. Betting sports profitably take a lot of effort -- even if you are paying some honest tout for decent handicapping, you still have to find the best numbers, and that is a full time effort.

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Messages In This Thread

Touts, honesty -- Kim Lee -- 25 Aug 01, 3:36 pm
Getting the best line -- RD -- 25 Aug 01, 8:13 pm
This is the BEST post I have read -- lepto -- 26 Aug 01, 8:06 am
More Observations -- RD -- 26 Aug 01, 10:23 am
re:more observations -- shadow -- 26 Aug 01, 11:10 am
Impressive post -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Aug 01, 11:42 am
Nice post -- StevieY -- 26 Aug 01, 3:39 pm
excellent post -- alterego -- 26 Aug 01, 9:03 pm
getting the best line -- Michael -- 27 Aug 01, 4:53 pm
goldsheet -- Michael -- 27 Aug 01, 4:40 pm

 

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