General Forum

How to handle the "huge exposure game"

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 12 Aug 01, 11:53 pm

Periodically, sports bettors are going to face situations where a game winds up being worth a big amount to them (closing a big parlay, or parlays, or helping the bettor win a football contest, etc).

In general, IMO, the average bettor tends to way overhedge these situations. As an example, I personally have about 10k coming in if I win my Eagles +8.5 teaser tomorrow. This is more than I expected to have, but every team I teased the Eagles with won this week. Since the line is currently 2, many would advocate I play back Balt -2 to lock in a profit, and have a great shot at a middle. I equate this to insuring a blackjack; it gets the money, but is a poor Expected Value play. I'd much rather roll the dice with the Eagles (the team I like to cover even at +2) than place any bet 11/10 on a team I think will cover less than 50% at that number.

The same holds true for those who have huge payouts (10 team parlays, contest winnings, etc) coming on the last game. I'm not saying to make no hedging bet, but in general, I think a partial hedge (say 10-25% of the expected winning bet is a much more prudent way to go). You avoid giving away much in EV, but make sure you "get your money back and at least clear a profit". This will also prevent you from becoming suicidal when someone runs a punt back 89 yards in OT to beat your +3.5 bet, etc.

Bottom line: a total 50% hedge (example, bet $5500/5000 on team A if team B is worth a $10,500 payout) rarely makes any sense at all. You should only make this if:

1. Your best guess is that Teams A and B have the same cover chance and
2. You can get Team B at no, or close to no, vig

If either 1 or 2 is not true, look to hedge less, and usually much less than 50%.

Messages In This Thread

How to handle the "huge exposure game" -- Fezzik -- 12 Aug 01, 11:53 pm

So, will you be hedging against the Mariners in October? -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 am

Difference between A's and Eagles -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 11:35 am

that's not a hedge -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 12:10 pm

Yes and no -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 pm

risk -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:04 pm

Hedging -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 1:38 pm

Example please? -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:56 pm

Example -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 5:36 pm

because you have 40x in equity now -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:01 pm

above title should read : 18x, not 40x (nt) -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:08 pm

You aren't wagering 18,000+ -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 6:11 pm

Agree to disagree -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:20 pm

You are both right, even disagreeing -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:32 am

Size your bets according the payoff, not the bet size. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 6:39 pm

he really has found some arbitrage -- Math Boy -- 13 Aug 01, 8:21 pm

You can always overbet if the marginal EV from betting more is less than th -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:41 pm

Practical issues -- James -- 14 Aug 01, 11:27 am

i'm the minority -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:38 pm

hedging futures bets -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 7:51 pm

I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 21 Aug 01, 7:58 pm

hedging futures -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 9:22 pm

I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 22 Aug 01, 6:40 pm

Sea hedge -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:34 am

Oops.......I showed my Sea Bias -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:36 am

I'm in the same boat. I won't hedge. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 8:57 am

Risk-averse betting? -- John May -- 13 Aug 01, 9:14 am

Agree -- Don Schlesinger -- 14 Aug 01, 1:11 pm

1 investment question -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 2:29 am

Attempt at some answers -- Don Schlesinger -- 15 Aug 01, 8:13 am

how much does money mean to you? -- docriver -- 15 Aug 01, 8:39 am

In-the-money options -- Jaeger -- 23 Aug 01, 6:44 pm

No -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 8:55 pm

Risk-averse betting? -- lepto -- 14 Aug 01, 1:33 pm

Your bet suffered turf toe -- McNabb#1 -- 14 Aug 01, 4:24 am

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