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Words for the unwary

Posted By: John May
Date: 24 Aug 01, 2:54 pm

In Response To: MLS picks (docriver)

I don't know anything about soccer to tell the truth. But I have been putting the MLS into my pythagorean theorem / strength of past schedule formulas, and actually, I've done pretty well.

Soccer is extremely difficult to handicap. It is far more random than indigenous US sports-soccer matches are decided on fleeting moments of individual brilliance and freak error. Also, considering the evolution of the game in the US it is unlikely that as much can be read into retrospective data as with the indigenous sports. I hope you do well but be cautious.

one thing about the MLS - the lines price draws as likely as European soccer (about 28% - 30%) - but draws are less likely in the MLS, so this helps out on the lines a bit.

Now that is interesting. Your figure of 28-30% is correct for top-flight soccer, however this figure increases with a decrease in skill, in the lowest (3rd) UK division for example the figure is 30.2% dropping to 24.4% in the top-flight premiership. Those figures are taken from the 1997-8 season.
Given the anti-correlation between skill and draw frequency I can't understand why the MLS would yield fewer draws, since the premiership is considered one of the best leagues and the MLS is still in its infancy. Do you have a reference/more data for this?

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Messages In This Thread

MLS picks -- docriver -- 23 Aug 01, 7:51 pm
Words for the unwary -- John May -- 24 Aug 01, 2:54 pm
MLS draws -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 4:43 pm
MLS draws -- Editor -- 24 Aug 01, 9:39 pm
Impressed by MLS -- John May -- 25 Aug 01, 2:16 am
add Miami -- docriver -- 25 Aug 01, 11:32 am

 

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