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Eye of the beholder

Posted By: Don Schlesinger
Date: 24 Aug 01, 8:36 am

In Response To: DonS is running the wrong way! (fezzik's chunk bet)

You haven't seen enough yet, but Dan has picked 56-7% in the NFL and NBA for 20 years. So, whether you believe that or not is totally irrelevant. When you make actuarial estimates, would you rather have 20 years' worth of data, or none?

So, your best estimate is 54.5%. Good for you! You're obviously making that estimate on the best info you have available TO YOU! But, if you now assume that this means that's the best estimate available to anyone, then you're not as smart as I thought you were.

Don

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Messages In This Thread

a question -- Arthur -- 21 Aug 01, 5:11 pm
answers -- Stanford Wong -- 21 Aug 01, 7:05 pm
Virtually all attainable -- Don Schlesinger -- 21 Aug 01, 7:36 pm
More data is required -- John May -- 22 Aug 01, 11:03 am
More data will come -- Stanford Wong -- 22 Aug 01, 1:39 pm
Highly doubtful -- Don Schlesinger -- 22 Aug 01, 7:02 pm
Don, you are one lovable smartass! (nt) -- Compador -- 22 Aug 01, 8:01 pm
Chunk Bet -- Fezzik -- 22 Aug 01, 10:40 pm
Wong +500 looks resonable -- Math Boy -- 23 Aug 01, 8:22 am
I'm impressed -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 9:33 am
not that great an estimate -- Math Boy -- 23 Aug 01, 3:47 pm
Spoilsport -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 4:09 pm
DonS is running the wrong way! -- fezzik's chunk bet -- 23 Aug 01, 11:15 pm
Eye of the beholder -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 8:36 am
you're not as smart as i thought you were -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 10:06 am
Strange thought processes -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 5:13 pm
you believe because you know him...but what about us? -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 5:28 pm
Honest answers -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 6:36 pm
Four years -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 5:30 pm
219/391 -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 6:40 pm
a little math question -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 6:43 pm
Math question -- Colin Caster -- 24 Aug 01, 8:06 pm
Suggestion: List those 391 picks -- Stanford Wong -- 24 Aug 01, 8:34 pm
Just asking -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 9:07 pm
Don, isn't this two-faced? -- Fezzik -- 25 Aug 01, 12:20 am
No new picks with old prices, please -- Stanford Wong -- 25 Aug 01, 7:14 am
Always boils down to the same thing -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 8:54 am
Classic DonS Deflection Post -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 8:56 pm
Too serious -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 8:45 am
I think you touched some nerves Don -- DowntownMan -- 25 Aug 01, 1:26 pm
I don't expect an answer . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 5:56 pm
Good post! -- Fezzik -- 25 Aug 01, 9:01 pm
Question re: " correction to the Gordon sample". -- samo666 -- 23 Aug 01, 2:43 am
You need to look at the total number of touts tested -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 3:07 am
Asinine analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 9:36 am
Er...why? -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 1:13 pm
Guess you can't read -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 4:34 pm
Corrections & Honest Touts -- Bob Fisher -- 23 Aug 01, 5:29 pm
Quite misguided analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 8:53 pm
Baccarat vs touting -- John May -- 24 Aug 01, 12:24 pm
I thank God every day -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 5:28 pm
What makes Stanford Wong an authority on football wagering? -- Colin Caster -- 21 Aug 01, 11:10 pm
Wong has established -- John May -- 22 Aug 01, 4:39 am

 

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