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DonS is running the wrong way!

Posted By: fezzik's chunk bet
Date: 23 Aug 01, 11:15 pm

In Response To: I'm impressed (Don Schlesinger)

He thinks he's scored a Touchdown. He's actually scored a safety!

Why the chunk bet on Wong +500? No math necessary. Solve by inspection......that line was so weak I had to grab before the other sharpies beat me to it. If you like math, read on.

MathBoy says "Wong +500 looks reasonable". Don assumes Mathboy is talking about his line!! Silly. It's the Wong bet that looks good, not that ugly line. Mathboy concludes +355 is a reasonable no vig line, and that's only if you agree that our best estimate of Wong is to hit 50% (an equally silly estimate that you can tell Math Boy feels is low......even the pessimistic (realistic?!) Kim Lee would give him 52%, I'd imagine).

A-ok to botch a line that you just throw up. We've all done it. But after it's exposed don't celebrate in the wrong endzone! I'd bet Wong +5% vs. Gordan in the regular season for up to 10k this year. Anyone want it? Anyone want to give me the Schlesinger 7% special?? I didn't think so......

Ps. This is no slam on Gordan at all. I'd take the under against ANY NFL sides picker if you set the line at 57%. That's a hell of hurdle to hit, and I'm not saying he cannot do it, but my best unbiased estimate of how he will do is 54.5%. Before Don goes nuts on me, let me caveat that my estimate may go higher as I learn more about Dan. I simply have not seen enough yet to possibly justify a stratospheric estimate of 57% for 2001. Therefore I'd bet a Donkey +500 vs. Gordan (apologies to Stanford).

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Messages In This Thread

a question -- Arthur -- 21 Aug 01, 5:11 pm
answers -- Stanford Wong -- 21 Aug 01, 7:05 pm
Virtually all attainable -- Don Schlesinger -- 21 Aug 01, 7:36 pm
More data is required -- John May -- 22 Aug 01, 11:03 am
More data will come -- Stanford Wong -- 22 Aug 01, 1:39 pm
Highly doubtful -- Don Schlesinger -- 22 Aug 01, 7:02 pm
Don, you are one lovable smartass! (nt) -- Compador -- 22 Aug 01, 8:01 pm
Chunk Bet -- Fezzik -- 22 Aug 01, 10:40 pm
Wong +500 looks resonable -- Math Boy -- 23 Aug 01, 8:22 am
I'm impressed -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 9:33 am
not that great an estimate -- Math Boy -- 23 Aug 01, 3:47 pm
Spoilsport -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 4:09 pm
DonS is running the wrong way! -- fezzik's chunk bet -- 23 Aug 01, 11:15 pm
Eye of the beholder -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 8:36 am
you're not as smart as i thought you were -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 10:06 am
Strange thought processes -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 5:13 pm
you believe because you know him...but what about us? -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 5:28 pm
Honest answers -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 6:36 pm
Four years -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 5:30 pm
219/391 -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 6:40 pm
a little math question -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 6:43 pm
Math question -- Colin Caster -- 24 Aug 01, 8:06 pm
Suggestion: List those 391 picks -- Stanford Wong -- 24 Aug 01, 8:34 pm
Just asking -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 9:07 pm
Don, isn't this two-faced? -- Fezzik -- 25 Aug 01, 12:20 am
No new picks with old prices, please -- Stanford Wong -- 25 Aug 01, 7:14 am
Always boils down to the same thing -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 8:54 am
Classic DonS Deflection Post -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 8:56 pm
Too serious -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 8:45 am
I think you touched some nerves Don -- DowntownMan -- 25 Aug 01, 1:26 pm
I don't expect an answer . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 5:56 pm
Good post! -- Fezzik -- 25 Aug 01, 9:01 pm
Question re: " correction to the Gordon sample". -- samo666 -- 23 Aug 01, 2:43 am
You need to look at the total number of touts tested -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 3:07 am
Asinine analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 9:36 am
Er...why? -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 1:13 pm
Guess you can't read -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 4:34 pm
Corrections & Honest Touts -- Bob Fisher -- 23 Aug 01, 5:29 pm
Quite misguided analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 8:53 pm
Baccarat vs touting -- John May -- 24 Aug 01, 12:24 pm
I thank God every day -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 5:28 pm
What makes Stanford Wong an authority on football wagering? -- Colin Caster -- 21 Aug 01, 11:10 pm
Wong has established -- John May -- 22 Aug 01, 4:39 am

 

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