Arena Football

props...

Posted By: daringly
Date: 29 Jun 04, 6:06 am

In Response To: Is this a legitimate way to predict occurrances of events, though? (WarDekar)

I use both means and medians. If you want to use a mean for an NFL season after 16 games, chop off the highest and lowest result - that will give you something more predictive.

The game went in an unexpected way. Typically, an Arena team that is winning will throw a lot fewer passes than one that is losing. If you look at San Jose and Arizona, you'll find that their opponents have more completions than they do (which makes sense, as SJ and ARI are winning teams). The Arenabowl was a "shoot-out" with roughly 10 events of a "tied score". This drove pass attempts and completions up very high. If One team could have stayed ahead by 2 scores, you'd see a more typical pass distribution... Leader would be far below the mean, and the chaser would be a tad above.

I think you can use means/medians, and when they agree, blindly bet the prop and you'll make money. But if you know the sport (and understand WHY certain things happen, like all OT wins by 1 pt), you'll add a little bit to your edge.

Messages In This Thread

Question for daringly -- WarDekar -- 28 Jun 04, 3:36 am

props -- daringly -- 28 Jun 04, 9:56 pm

Is this a legitimate way to predict occurrances of events, though? -- WarDekar -- 28 Jun 04, 10:55 pm

props... -- daringly -- 29 Jun 04, 6:06 am

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