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Arena Football

2 guesses

Posted By: Rick Peterman
Date: 3 Feb 04, 10:19 pm

In Response To: Las Vegas at Colorado (daringly)

Two possible thoughts of why some people may bet on Colorado +9. I'm not saying I think these are true...just two guesses as to why the action is moving the line.

1. People who are betting Arena Football, especially so early on in the week and the season, probably are also very much interested in the NFL...and maybe the "Home Dog" theory makes some people think betting a home dog blindly may be a good idea. if this was a NFL week 1 line, and I didn't know anything, but had an itch to make a bet, I'd be on the COL +9 side rather than the LV -9 side.

2. Its the 1st week in the season, there's alot of possible changes, either in personnel or talent changes due to an year of experience or an year of getting older. There is more uncertaintiy in the 1st week. The turnover in personnel seems to be very high in Arena. Even in sports where the turnover is lower, like the NBA, massive changes can happen...for example, DAL is not nearly as good this year, but DEN is much better, and both of these teams really only had one major change that is probably more quantifiable to more people than in Arena Football.

On a separate note....I wonder how LVSC feels. If Pinnacle and/or Olympic is posting lines before they release there's, how can they justify to their clients that they should continue to get paid? If LVSC lines are the same as Pin, then the LVSC clients could just copy Pin lines...if LVSC lines are significantly different, then it sets up a possible middle for players.....I think I'd be pissed if I was LVSC...to the point I have to think if it is worthwhile being in the Arena business.

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Messages In This Thread

Las Vegas at Colorado -- daringly -- 3 Feb 04, 4:11 pm
Just to clarify... -- daringly -- 3 Feb 04, 4:14 pm
And to clarify? -- James -- 3 Feb 04, 4:57 pm
No more clarification needed. -- daringly -- 3 Feb 04, 6:00 pm
It seems that you might have a hard time- -- D -- 3 Feb 04, 6:02 pm
Drebin -- Pudge -- 3 Feb 04, 6:13 pm
What's your vector, Victor? (nt) -- The Groovin' Mahoovin -- 3 Feb 04, 6:15 pm
Perhaps... -- daringly -- 3 Feb 04, 6:22 pm
"I'm doing things the same as I always have" -- D -- 3 Feb 04, 6:34 pm
By the way- im curious- -- D -- 3 Feb 04, 6:37 pm
No. -- daringly -- 3 Feb 04, 6:50 pm
opening lines? -- Pudge -- 3 Feb 04, 6:59 pm
I am not sure you understand what you are doing -- bear -- 4 Feb 04, 11:31 am
Didn't Colorado suck? -- Pudge -- 3 Feb 04, 5:23 pm
Last year... -- daringly -- 3 Feb 04, 5:58 pm
How much worse? -- Pudge -- 3 Feb 04, 6:11 pm
I thought they moved from Toronto -- Rick Peterman -- 3 Feb 04, 10:09 pm
2 guesses -- Rick Peterman -- 3 Feb 04, 10:19 pm
What is LVSC? (nt) -- Reno Master -- 4 Feb 04, 10:26 am
Las Vegas Soorts Consultants -- Goose -- 4 Feb 04, 11:01 am
LVSC -- Ed -- 4 Feb 04, 2:27 pm
I like Colorado now... -- James -- 7 Feb 04, 12:02 pm
I split the difference and took em at +8. (nt) -- Cutter -- 7 Feb 04, 5:50 pm

 


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