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Arena Football

reading into Pinnie...

Posted By: daringly
Date: 12 Mar 04, 4:01 pm

In Response To: Arena this week (Sean)

I like all your sides plays, and did them myself earlier. I'd be very careful though, about guessing on totals based on Pinnacle's lines. Totals have a much higher variance (compared to sides), and are much harder to beat.

A small suggestion for totals (as it related to Dallas O103). NEVER play away from the number 98.5. Every subset is -EV.

A couple other interesting things... There are MASSIVE scalps available in Arena right now. I would never "take a position" based solely on a book's numbers, but Pinnacle's point selling on sides and totals results in a scalp on any side with a 1 to 1.5 point difference, and some totals with a 1.5+ point difference (again, totals are tougher to beat). How often do these scalps occur? About 3/4 of the sides each week.

Also, there are a ton of profitable middles. If you are laying -110, any 2-point sides middle, or 2.5-point totals middle is +EV.

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Messages In This Thread

Arena this week -- Sean -- 12 Mar 04, 2:17 pm
reading into Pinnie... -- daringly -- 12 Mar 04, 4:01 pm
Thanks for your comments -- James -- 13 Mar 04, 2:00 am
if you can afford it use esportsstats (nt) -- Sublime -- 14 Mar 04, 8:25 am

 


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